Will Interest Rates Drop in 2025?
Here’s what you should know before you start planning—or panicking.
If you’re keeping an eye on mortgage rates in 2025, you’re definitely not alone. It’s one of the most common questions I’m hearing lately as a Realtor in Shawnee: “Are rates finally going to come down?” And while I don’t have a crystal ball (despite what my latest YouTube thumbnail might suggest), I do have some clear-eyed insight, and a strong opinion about how buyers should approach the market.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Do Fluctuate)
At the end of 2024, mortgage rates were hanging out in the 6.5% to 7% range. By early 2025, we saw a bit of a spike and then some modest easing, landing us in the high 6s by mid-March. Yes, it’s an improvement, but nothing drastic.
Some of this volatility is tied to inflation data, economic reports, and yes, even the unpredictability of what’s coming out of Washington. Markets get nervous when they don’t know what direction policy is headed, and that shows up in mortgage rates.
Enter Dr. Lawrence Yun, Our Industry’s Economist-in-Chief
Dr. Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, recently forecasted that rates might average around 6.4% this year and possibly dip closer to 6.1% in 2026. He’s not promising a free fall, but he does see some gentle downward movement on the horizon.
That said, he’s not handing out guarantees. And neither am I.
Why “Date the Rate, Marry the House” Is Not Helping Anyone
This phrase has been tossed around by agents and echoed in the media so often, it’s become background noise. But let me say this clearly: it’s irresponsible.
Telling people to buy now and refinance later assumes that lower rates are coming. And that’s not a promise any real estate professional should be making.
So What Should You Do?
Make your home-buying decision based on what’s affordable for you right now. Focus on your monthly payment. If rates drop in the future, great—you and your lender can look at refinancing. Some of the excellent lenders I work with here in Shawnee will even track rates for you and let you know when a refinance might make sense.
And if you’re wondering when it’s smart to refinance, the rule of thumb is this: it often makes sense when rates drop by at least 1%. Anything less than that may not offset the cost of the refi unless you’re planning to stay put for a while.
True Story: Patience Paid Off
I had buyers who hit pause on their home search for over a year. They were watching the market, but also being realistic. When it became clear that a dramatic drop wasn’t coming, they adjusted their expectations and set a budget based on current rates. We found the right home, one they loved and could comfortably afford.
That’s what I call smart real estate.
Final Thoughts
Stop waiting on headlines. Start focusing on your plan.
I’d love to help you make sense of this market, whether you’re buying, selling, or just thinking through your options. You don’t have to make guesses. You just need a good guide.
Watch the video here to get the full breakdown →
And when you’re ready, let’s talk.
Steve Reese
Sold on Shawnee • NextHome Central Real Estate
📞 405-585-6580
📧 Steve@SoldonShawnee.com
🌐 SoldonShawnee.com
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