Trends

Shawnee to Wall Street: How National Housing Trends Shape Our Local Market

September 12, 2025

When it comes to real estate, what happens on Wall Street eventually filters down to Shawnee. Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve policy, and national housing trends may feel far removed from your front porch, but they shape what buyers can afford, how quickly homes sell, and where prices head next.

I recently attended a webinar featuring Justin Messer, President and CEO of Prosperity Home Mortgage, followed by an in-depth presentation from Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Prosperity is licensed all around the country and also here in Oklahoma, so Messer’s comments about lending conditions carry weight for local buyers. Dr. Yun’s economic outlook pulled back the curtain on what’s happening nationally and what it means for housing markets like ours in Shawnee.

The Mortgage Perspective: Justin Messer

Messer began by setting the tone for today’s lending environment. Unlike the risky mortgages that fueled the housing crash of 2008, today’s borrowers are held to higher standards. Buyers taking out a mortgage are on much stronger financial footing, which means foreclosure risk is low. That stability underpins the entire housing market.

He also noted that while interest rates get all the headlines, loan conditions matter just as much. Buyers who plan ahead, get pre-approved, and work with trusted lenders are better positioned to secure financing and compete for the right home. In short, mortgage markets are cautious, but they’re also healthier and more resilient than they’ve been in decades.

Find some great LOCAL LENDERS here!

Caricature of Dr. Lawrence Yun (chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®) standing next to a table with a laptop computer and coffee cup, and there's a presentation of "Mortgage Rates" with a line graph and a house icon with a dollar sign on it.The Economic Outlook: Dr. Lawrence Yun

Dr. Yun’s presentation zeroed in on the big picture, using data and charts to show where the market is headed. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Mortgage Rates and the Fed

  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4% in September before climbing back, and mortgage rates followed, easing to about 6.35%, the lowest in nearly a year.
  • Yun expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as soon as September, with more cuts to follow into 2026.
  • He stressed that even a 6% mortgage rate is enough to revive pent-up demand. Buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely to return once financing feels more manageable.

2. Solid Credit Footing and Low Foreclosure Risk

  • Of America’s 88 million homeowners, 35 million own their homes free and clear.
  • The remaining 53 million with mortgages are overwhelmingly on strong credit footing. Delinquencies and foreclosures are historically low.
  • Yun emphasized that today’s environment is the opposite of 2008: fewer risky loans, more equity, and a safer housing system.

3. Inventory Pressures and the Locked-In Effect

  • Many homeowners are “locked in” to their ultra-low 3% mortgage rates, reluctant to sell and trade up into higher payments.
  • Inventory is climbing slowly but remains far below pre-COVID levels.
  • For buyers, that means more choice than a year ago but still not enough homes to fully meet demand.

4. Home Price Trends

  • Every state in the U.S. saw double-digit home price gains over the past five years. Oklahoma posted increases above 40%, while hot spots like Florida and the Northeast saw even more.
  • Yun cautioned that any local price declines should be viewed as “second chance opportunities” for buyers, not signs of systemic risk.
  • The foundation of the market — jobs, equity, and credit quality — is too strong to expect a crash.

5. Home Sales Volume

  • Existing home sales remain stuck around 4 million annually, one of the lowest levels in recent decades.
  • Sales have not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels, largely because of higher mortgage rates and limited supply.
  • Yun expects that once rates ease, sales activity will rebound.

6. Jobs and Wages

  • Payroll employment across the country is higher today than it was before COVID.
  • Wages are now outpacing inflation, which means buyers have more real income to put toward housing.
  • Yun called this a “quiet positive sign” for the future of demand.

Why This Matters for Shawnee

All of these national dynamics — from Treasury yields to Fed rate cuts to inventory shortages — filter down to our market here in Shawnee. But the numbers show Shawnee is in a stronger position than much of Oklahoma.

In August 2025:

  • Closed sales in Shawnee rose 31.5% year-over-year, while statewide sales dipped 1.2%.
  • Median prices in Shawnee held steady at $196,800, far more affordable than the statewide median of $257,500.
  • Months’ supply in Shawnee was 2.9, still a seller’s market, compared to 5.75 statewide.
  • Inventory grew nearly 39% year-over-year, giving buyers more choices while keeping demand brisk.

Put simply: Shawnee is outperforming the broader state. Buyers have options without facing runaway prices, and sellers benefit from stronger demand and faster-moving homes.

Bottom Line

The volatility on Wall Street may grab the headlines, but what really matters is how those shifts play out in Shawnee. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon. Inventory is rising, though still tight. And our local market is outperforming the rest of Oklahoma in both activity and affordability.

This is why you need a REALTOR® who not only tracks Shawnee’s numbers but also watches the national economy. From Treasury yields to Fed policy to your neighborhood’s latest sale, the trends connect, and they all matter when you are planning your next move.

If you are thinking about buying or selling, let’s sit down and talk about how to turn this market knowledge into your advantage.